Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS63 KIND 291658
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1258 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers this evening, mainly across southwest Indiana

- Additional rain and storm chances late Thursday into Friday

- Drier and warmer weather returns early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Tonight and Friday.

The most active period of weather over the next 7 days is expected
to be tonight into early tomorrow as a low pressure system brings
moderate to locally heavy rain to southern Indiana and Kentucky.
Models have a pretty good handle on the synoptic aspects of the
system with a broad upper level trough tracking through the Ohio
Valley with a surface low undergoing cyclogenesis as it moves from
southern Missouri into Kentucky. With the southern portions of the
forecast area on the northern fringe of the low both at the surface
and up to around 700mb, the heaviest rain will stay south of the
forecast area with only the southern counties likely to get clipped
with heavier rain.

Isentropic lift is more parallel across south central Indiana with
further lowers the threat for heavier rain. This will limit the
heavier convective showers and storms to the Ohio River Valley with
lighter to moderate rain for the southern counties. Total QPF should
still get to around a half inch to perhaps as high as an inch south
of I-70 but with the limiting factors would lean towards the lower
end of model guidance.

Colder air will move in aloft during the daytime hours on Friday
with the potential for some weak instability due to the strength of
the cold air which could bring a few showers to the southeastern
counties during the afternoon hours. There will also be a weak
secondary low on the backend of the exiting system which could bring
additional showers and storms to the northern counties during the
evening and early overnight hours, but coverage should be fairly
minimal with only weak forcing.

Temperatures tomorrow will end up similar to today with highs in the
low to mid 70s with the difference being the warmer temperatures
will be across the northwestern counties where more plentiful sun is
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Friday Night Through Sunday.

A few showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours Friday
into Saturday with continued low rain chances into the early weekend
as the upper level pattern remains sharply northwesterly with weak
impulses moving southeast through the jetstream. These showers will
likely be falling out of an elevated cloud deck with some dry air
near the surface which will further help to limit coverage. With the
northwesterly flow but at the surface and aloft, temperatures will
remain mild with highs in the 70s.

Monday Through Thursday.

The upper level ridge across the Central US states will begin to
shift eastward Monday into Tuesday which will bring a fairly
significant pattern shift to central Indiana with a return to
southerly surface flow and much warmer temperatures through the
middle of the week. Highs in the mid to potentially upper 80s are
possible by Wednesday but dew points will likely only be in the
upper 50s to low 60s which will limit the overall heat risk.

Another low pressure system looks likely Thursday into Friday but
models and ensembles have significant differences on the track of
the low and its resultant impacts to the axis of heavier
precipitation. With a fairly unstable environment out ahead of the
low, severe weather will be possible depending on the final timing
of the low and whether it moves through during a diurnal maximum.
There are some model showing signals for greater than 2-3 inches of
rain but for now those look to be the outliers, but will have to
monitor for any potential flooding concerns.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Impacts:

- Isolated SHRA at HUF this evening, more widespread after 08Z
- MVFR cigs 08Z to 14Z at BMG, possibly at HUF

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period with very
isolated showers this afternoon. Coverage of rain will increase late
this afternoon and evening towards HUF but otherwise chances are too
low to mention. Additional rain is likely late tonight with greatest
coverage across southern Indiana with impacts to BMG. Cigs are
expected to drop to BMG after 08Z with lesser chances at the other
terminals. Some brief IFR or TSRA is possible but unlikely. Winds
will remain northerly to northwesterly at less than 8kts through the
TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White